What is the way forward for Indian markets in the near term, choppiness, volatility or the strength is here to stay now?
Whilst I still hold a view that we will move towards 16000 between now and then the state election season in June. Over the last 2 to 3 weeks, we have seen a few things happen which are making us a relatively more optimistic on India than we were at the beginning of this year.
The big development over the last month has been that the global economy, leaving aside India, is weakening. The weakening is most palpable in Continental Europe. The UK pulled back its growth targets for the next couple of years. The Portuguese Government collapsed yesterday. So the weakening is most palpable in Europe.
What is also notable across the western world is long term bond yields are going up showing that markets there are getting increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures arising there from commodity prices, oil prices, food prices.
Now in the midst of this weakening in the global economy, our economy is holding on relatively well. Yes we have political economic problems but economy is holding up relatively well. Hence whilst we will participate in a broader pullback along with the rest of the world, a pullback from risk asset classes over the next 2 to 3 months.
Once we hit 16000 which is around 13-13.5 times forward earnings, the outlook for India will become much more optimistic than I have been for sometime.
Whilst I still hold a view that we will move towards 16000 between now and then the state election season in June. Over the last 2 to 3 weeks, we have seen a few things happen which are making us a relatively more optimistic on India than we were at the beginning of this year.
The big development over the last month has been that the global economy, leaving aside India, is weakening. The weakening is most palpable in Continental Europe. The UK pulled back its growth targets for the next couple of years. The Portuguese Government collapsed yesterday. So the weakening is most palpable in Europe.
What is also notable across the western world is long term bond yields are going up showing that markets there are getting increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures arising there from commodity prices, oil prices, food prices.
Now in the midst of this weakening in the global economy, our economy is holding on relatively well. Yes we have political economic problems but economy is holding up relatively well. Hence whilst we will participate in a broader pullback along with the rest of the world, a pullback from risk asset classes over the next 2 to 3 months.
Once we hit 16000 which is around 13-13.5 times forward earnings, the outlook for India will become much more optimistic than I have been for sometime.
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